Waiting to raise the river
Here's a hand from a 6/12 or 8/16 game a long time ago, but a recent thread in the mid-stakes SH forum jogged my memory.
I have Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] on button. 5 limpers, I limp, SB completes, 8 players.
Flop is J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. BB bets, 3 callers, I raise, everyone calls back to my right who 3-bets. I cap it , BB calls, everyone folds back to my right who calls. 3 players.
Turn is 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB bets 0.5 BB and is all-in. My right thinks for a bit and looks like he's going to just call but then decides to complete it. I am 99% certain he has a set. I call.
The reason I call (instead of raising) is because 10 cards will fill him up, and 8 cards will put a 4th club out there on the river. Assuming if I raise and he calls me down, and if the 4th club comes on the turn he will check-call, I think this is more profitable than raising the turn.
If the board pairs the river, I can call him down and save 1 bet (vs. raising the turn).
So basically there are 8 scare cards for him where I only get one more bet out of him and there are 10 bad cards for me where he gets one more bet out of me. If I wait, I can see which way the river goes and either save 1 bet or get the same 2 more bets out of him by raising the river when the safe card comes.
Any flaws in the logic (assuming we pay each other off if the scare card comes and he pays me off if the scare card doesn't come)?
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