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Old 10-06-2007, 11:52 PM
Kevin J Kevin J is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Midwest
Posts: 1,254
Default Re: Big Pot River Decision

Thanks Aragorn - Just a couple of comments/clarifications..

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If there were a bunch of cold callers for 3 cold, OK, but two opponents isn't enough to play 22.

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I agree it's close, which is why I called it a "flyer". They are both aggressive players, with one being a not-so-good player, so I think my implied odds are there. I also think capping it myself would've been ok in this potential steal/re-steal scenario. Although, like I said, it IS close and I think folding is fine. Especially if I'm not going to play it well post-flop.

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On the turn, the lead is fine but I'd usually just call the raise. Not only could someone have the flush, but KKK is a possibility. 3-betting is fine if you really don't think those hands are likely, but I'd generally just call when someone raises this turn. I could be convinced 3-betting is best, I guess, but I'd really have to think KKK is unlikely.

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KK is VERY unlikely... CO doesn't figure to have it, cuz he almost certainly would've 3-bet the flop. The button "could" have it, but it's not that likely. Of course, when button folds the turn, I figure to at least have outs to a full.

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On the river, I'd usually pay off but it's gotta be a leak--I just don't see how you're ever good. The few hands you were still ahead of (AA or AK-AJ with the Ad) just got there. The fact that you described him as creative enough to do anything makes it a sobbing call, I suppose.

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The river was my main question. The fact that button is creative, means he could have Ad,Kx. But can he have anything I can possibly beat? I'm getting like 20 to 1!! So folding seems horrendous, but can it be correct here?
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