Re: $5HUSNG--Top 2
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pokercurious, do you really think that is their range? i would be absolutely shocked if it contained any of the combodraws you suggested, and would strongly weight it towards hands the turn improves.
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You make a fair point, so how about the following range: 77,99,TT,AK,JQ,KT,K9,T9,79,7T? This only contains the sets, the str8, and the 2 pair hands, which I think is reasonable (I even took out AK, which I think many $5 villains do this with):
Board: 7c Kc Ts 9s
Equity
54.04% ( KdTh )
45.96% ( 77,99,TT,JQ,K9,KT,T9,79,7T )
It's still a clear call. If you take out 79 and 7T, you basically become indifferent to folding or calling. This is only a clear fold if you think villain never does this with 2 pair.
Consider that villains at this level are often just playing their hands. A hand like 79 will often call a flop cbet and fold to a double barrel unimproved. Suddenly he hits his 9 and gets so excited he puts you on AK and initiates the donk-huge-hand-value-extraction line.
I would love to hear arguments for alternative ranges.
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