[Check_The_Nuts]

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no offence, and I'm not sure who suggested the check/call line on the river but its clearly really bad. If you are that far ahead of his range that you can check/call KQ then clearly a river bluff is profitable as well.

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How do you figure? That can only be true if he's calling with a lot of worse hands that he'd be betting with, which is highly unlikely to be the case. Betting in that case would fold crappy hands and still cost you money to some of the better hands, including ones that beat you that might check behind.

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guy is likely to bet AK cause he looks like a busted draw and figures you'll call. So he's betting a lot of hands that beat you. Altho its unlikely for him to bet AT (he's more likely to call with that hand however).

Anyways my thinking in that theoretical case, is that he would have to show up with busted draws really often for you to be good >30% of the time on the river. If he has busted draws that often you can bet/bluff profitably as well because he's got air too often.

Do it in stove. If you assume he folds AK on the river he's going to fold 40% of the time, and you only need him to fold more than 33% for it to be profitable. Obv. if you add busted draws in this bet is even better.

Hopefully my math is right. Correct me if I'm wrong (obv. rounding his river bet to a PSB).