Re: Question on Variance & judging your play
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Even if you get it in as an 80% favorite every time - you will still get outdrawn 20% of the time. So if you are involved in 5 of these in a large turnament and all is for your life - you will statistical on average be out of the tournament.
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This is wrong.
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How is this wrong? If in each of them you're all-in (like the post states), then the probability you will not win all of "n" such occurances is 1-(0.8)^n. You will win 3 such all-ins in a row only 51% of the time, four 41% of the time, and 5 only 33% of the time.
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Technically, if you're involved in 5 all-ins for your tourney life, it means that you have already won the first 4.
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Shrug, I guess if it's just a semantic issue then fine.
A better way to word it then would have been, "If you always get all-in for your tournament life as an 80% favorite, you'll be out 2/3 of the time before your 6th all-in."
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