A Look at the 2008 Twins Payroll
Salary information provided by Cot's Baseball Contracts;
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/200...-twins_17.html
This is an estimation of what the Twins payroll will look like in 2008, and perhaps beyond. I'll estimate who is going to play where the best I can.
Position, Player, Salary, Service Time
C-Joe Mauer, $6.25MM, 4.0
1b-Justin Morneau, ~$7MM, 3.2
2b, Alexi Casilla, ~$400k, < 1
3b-none
ss-Jason Bartlett, ~$500k, 2.1
lf-up in the air, $500k-$2.5MM
cf-none
rf-Michael Cuddyer, ~$5MM, 4.2
dh-Jason Kubel, ~$1.2MM, 3.0
Bench
UT-Nick Punto, $2.4MM, 5.1
C-Mike Redmond, $0.95MM, 9.1
OF-Jason Tyner, ~$800k, 3.1
Offensive notes; There will be two more bench player, most likely getting paid about $700k combined. Craig Monroe will either take a huge paycut to sign or get non tendered. There is no way the Twins offer arb and get stuck paying $5+MM.
That's about $25.2MM on position players, still short a CF and 3b, and kind of crappy at LF/DH. They will owe Mauer and Morneau $20MM+ in 2009, and Cuddyer ain't gettin' any cheaper as he rolls through his arb years.
Pitching;
SP-Johan Santana, $13.25MM, 7.1
SP-Boof Bonser, $400k, 1.1
SP-Scott Baker, $400k, 1.1
SP-Matt Garza, $400k, < 1
SP-Fransisco Liriano, $500k, 2.0
SP-Kevin Slowey, $400k, <1
RP-Joe Nathan, $6MM, 6.1
RP-Pat Neshek, $400k, 1.1
RP-Matt Guerrier, $900k, 3.1
RP-Juan Rincon, $2.8MM, 5.1
RP-Dennys Reyes, $1MM, 9.0
RP-Jesse Crain, $1.05MM, 3.1
Pitching notes; Santana, Nathan, and Rincon are in their last years before free agency. Nobody is locked in for more than ~$1MM for 2009.
That's about $27.5MM for a pat staff.
The Twins payroll was $71MM last year,
and I've read that it will be around $78MM in 2008. They've got $52.7 in commitments for 2008 leaving them ~$25MM to find a CF, 3b, and LF/DH while looking for an improvement over Kubel at LF/DH.
This team is not bad enough to blow up, but they've got some serious holes. As I look at it, trading Santana is not the answer. They've got to stay the course and sign second tier free agents (Lofton, Lamb) to fill their holes and make a run. I can see trading Nathan to fill one hole, and Rincon as more of a salary dump. You give up Santana, you give up your edge.
After taking a closer look at this team, I think the trade scenarios are even more muddled. The one team that could fill the Twins holes at 3B and CF are the Dodgers with LaRoche and Kemp, but that would be a violent overpay from the Dodgers perspective, and there certianly wouldn't be any other prospects going over. Most likely any deal for Santana is going to be step 1 of a multi step process, but again, I just don't see it getting done.
Final thoughts; This team should plug its holes with cheap options and see what lady variance says about 2008. If they make it, great. If not, deal whatever stopgaps they sign, Santana, and whoever's left from Nathan and Rincon at the deadline. They get less in return, but will have a much better idea of where they stand. Right now, this team is in no-mans land, with regard to win potential.
Given the fact that Morneau and Mauer are not too far from costing $30MM/yr, I doubt it's in the Twins best interest to sign Santana to a 6/120 extension. I can't see him accepting less than that, so his value to the Twins is ~$27MM (~$12MM for 2008 performance and ~$15MM for draft pick compensatioin) for 2008. While they can get way more in total value in a trade, it's unlikely they can replace his $25MM of actual value for 2008.
I do recant my statement that they won't take Crisp back in a deal. He would probably have to be paired with Youkilis and a prospect (Lester/Bowden/Masterson/high ceiling A ball type...etc).