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Old 11-19-2007, 06:13 PM
Vyse Vyse is offline
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Default Re: **Atlanta Braves offseason thread

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PECOTA projected Anderson to an eqa in the neighborhood of ~.240 heading into this year. That will come down slightly. They had him with a defensive WARP of 2.0 over ~125 games. That won't come down. Even if he's a replacement level hitter, PECOTA will project him as a two win player. Giving him a projection of 1.5 is conservative.

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Actually, I have the book in my hands right now. PECOTA projected a .237 EqA and -3 defense in 118 games. He had -12 defense in Double-A in 06. He's not good defensively. They called him "an aspiring fifth outfielder type." Sounds fun.

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Da Vanon's WARP the last three years? (-.3),1.5, 1.3, he's 34, and not good defensively. Da Vanon is clearly a worse option than Josh Anderson regardless of price.

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Stop cherrypicking stupid stats, like seriously. He basically didn't play at all this year. He still has a career .349 OBP and a .749 OPS. Career .273 Eqa. Dude, Anderson can't even get a 700 OPS IN TRIPLE A. And his D, judging by BP's metrics anyway, is about the same as Anderson's.... What are you smoking?

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The 35 year old Cliff Floyd's WARP over the last two years? 1.4 and 1.6. No, he's not suddenly going to stay healthy. He's good for 300 PA max. With Floyd you lose defense at THREE positions. Again, clearly a worse option than Josh Anderson regardless of price.

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Do you know the meaning of the word platoon? Are you intentionally being as dumb as possible and cherry picking the worst stats you can? He's good against righties and his D is barely below to moderately below average, not horrible. Way more wins than Anderson will provide.

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Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and has posted WARPs of 3.3 in each of the last two years. He's got that 6.9 from 2005 to cling to.

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The fact that you think the only thing you need to analyze players is WARP shows that a) you're either really bad at utilizing sabermetric tools or b) you suck at playing Devil's Advocate.

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At least he's a clear upgrade in talent over Anderson. You'd still be downgrading defensively in two spots, which decreases some of the benefit. If Jenkins will sign a 1 year, $4MM deal, he'd be a wash with Anderson in terms of value, although probably worth it if they can't spend the money elsewhere. There is a strong argument that money could be better spent on draft picks in June allowing them to trade a prospect for a rental in the second half of the season.

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lol @ you thinking Anderson's worth it just because you project him as a 1.5 win player who makes 400K.

A 25-year-old had his worst professional season ever and coming in he was already "good" for a .237 EqA with negative defense. What?

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For crying out loud! Brandon Jones and Gregor Blanco are better options than the first two guys you mentioned and still more cost effective than Jenkins. Those are the two guys you should be comparing Anderson against, not some old nag free agents.

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The main value in FA is platoons, which are easy and cheap to find. I can't and won't take you seriously if all you throw out is "lolol guy had x.x WARP and I'm not going to mention his playing time or anything else, WARP = all."
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