[Kirkrrr]

Rob, I think you're misunderstanding what I'm trying to say. I'm not saying that he's limp-raising only AA/KK, I'm saying that once he gets called, he's not shoving all those other hands we're beating on the flop b/c it's sorta suicidal, so the bet is for value far more often than not, and the times we're a slight favorite vs a big draw and hold up will not offset the majority of the time we're far, far behind.

Again, it sorta goes back to variance. One lesson that was brought back over and over from trading is that variance is a necessary evil that must be minimized if you want to survive the long run (lots of threads on this subject). Hedge funds have to spend colossal sums of money not to just increase the expectation of greater returns, but to minimize variance in order that they can live long enough to see those returns materialize.

Do you see where I'm going with this? Yes, we can play with the numbers to make the call look very, very marginally +EV or about breakeven, however jacking up variance just to break even is a recipe for disaster, and is the reason a lot of younger superstar pros go broke even faster than they rise. Something to consider.

Kirk