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Old 03-26-2007, 08:34 AM
prinsrob prinsrob is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 150
Default Re: Jman article in Bluff

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Sorry, I skimmed it through too fast and missed a few points, you are correct in that the hand range given didnt exclude anything, and I missed a few part. Either way, at point of turncall, has no percect knowledge of our rivershove range, and thus he has no idea whether we will always fire with all our range on river, and thus the 70% equity is of no real consequence. If he somehow knew that we would always fire our whole range all the time, then yeah, calling turn and river will show an immediate profit, but since he cannot, should we fire with an optimal frequency (with 30% equity it would turn out we can fire 45% of the time obviously), and thus he would gain the 9000 in the pot 55% of the time (when we check), and lose 4500 the times we bet, so with this particular range he'd still win móney even if he folded all the times on river, only when Jman changes his range for turnbet does it become wrong to call both streets, this whole example granted we are clairovoyant so we can bet the times we hit just a pair with a suited connector as well for value, and even so, him calling turn becomes automatically correct. If Jman starts bluffing more than 15% of the time hes no longer playing optimally and we could resort to calling all the time, and even if we continue to fold all the time he'd need to be able to fire more than 67% on the river which simply isn't happening in reality since we'd just obviously all the time at that point.

So yeah, jmans assumption in this case is actually wrong given the handrange, but I felt you didn't express it that much in detail [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Hi,

Could you explain how you calculate these percentages? (I don't want to sound lazy and did try to come up with them myself but I guess I'm too dumb [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]),

thnx,

SSNLplayer [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
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