[LuckyLloyd]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it all depends on YOUR GAME

Fold, if you feel that you have an easy table that you can extract alot of chips from without hands, and wait for a better spot to get it in.

Shove. If you don't have much control over the table and feel like this is a good spot to gamble. Weak players like this can easily have a worst Ace here or mid pair.

Calling is never an option here

[/ QUOTE ]

That type of analysis tilts me so hard. Your edge is identifying plus EV spots better than weaker opponents and not being afraid to go after them. My guess is that the time per level in a $100 freezeout ain't great. Talk of "outplaying" our opponents is redundant. It's either plus EV to shove or it isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tilt you? lol.

OK, I agree that "identifying plus EV spots better than weaker opponents" is very important. But, is it EVERYTHING? There are always other factors to consider (your table, tournament structure, payouts, ect.) Talk of outplaying opponents is redundant, but necessary…. you either can or you can’t…whether you can or can’t is yet another consideration.

[/ QUOTE ]

Plus cEV IS everything in the vast majority of situations. The only exceptions are in satellite or pay bubble situations where your tournament life may need to be considered because what is +cEV is no longer automatically +$EV.

In any case, that is not the case here:

- It is relatively early in the tournament;
- We are miles from the money;
- We currently have a stack not far above average. We will need to double our chips more than once to be average stacked at the final table;
- Given that it is a $100 freezeout it is unlikely that the structure is elongated to such a degree that we should be unwilling to take a small equity edge and flip for our stack;
- We are 42 BBs deep. The deeper we play the more applicable the idea of "outplaying" the opposition becomes. It is easiest to do this in 3 - bet pots where there is still room for pressure to be applied on turn and river. Such situations will not arise often when the effective stacks are less than 100BBs.


Let me let you in on a very obvious point. Most bad tournament players way overestimate their ability to outplay the opposition, find better spots and other such nonsense. I question whether there are any players in the world who could justify folding AK here on the basis of their ability to outplay the opposition in a badly structured $100 FO.