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Old 10-29-2007, 10:47 PM
dlpnyc21 dlpnyc21 is offline
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Default Re: 3rd Barrell 5/10 NL FTP??

[ QUOTE ]
i disagree bc a cbet still takes it down more than 50% of the time i would assume AND it builds a pot for you if you do hit your flush

but maybe im being a little results oriented having seen how the hand played out...i know i bet this turn almost always-but if i get a feeling that hes not folding (and not folding to the combo of turn + river bet) i check...seems pretty straightforward right?

[/ QUOTE ]



I think it's very very clear that the villian does not have a hand stronger than 1 pair here. Him playing 2p or a set on this draw heavy of a board OOP makes no sense. Therefore, I think the next question becomes how often he folds 1 pair, be it Qx or Ax (which are the most likely hands he will call with). I would say qx is significantly more likely than Ax here. I think he will fold all hands <Qx. If, some of the time you think he folds Qx, this is a clear 3rd barrell. If you think he calls all of the time with Qx, it's a check behind (since that's the largest part of his range). I think you have to 3rd barrel here a decent % of the time.
dlpnyc21
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