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Old 11-25-2007, 06:09 PM
pzhon pzhon is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 4,515
Default Re: Calling all ins when the price is right

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Is it ever correct in a tournament or sng to pass on calling an all in bet when the price is right? For example, someone goes all in on the flop and you are getting 3/1 pot odds but you are 2/1 to hit the nut flush. If you lose the hand you are out of the tournament.

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First, survival does have some value in tournaments, but not as much as a lot of people think. The tournaments which emphasize survival the most are single table SNGs, but even there, the equity needed to call typically increases by only a few percent, except on the bubble. In a multitable tournament, the equity you need to call all-in may increase by less than 1 percent.

Second, you are probably undervaluing the nut flush draw. Very often, the nut flush draw has pairing outs (e.g., if an ace will win for you, then you may have 12 outs instead of 9), and you also win a few percent from catching running trips or running two pair. If your opponent is semi-bluffing with a lower flush draw or a straight draw, you don't need to catch anything to win, and you may be a huge favorite. If you give your opponent a reasonable range of hands, you will often find that the nut flush draw is only a slight underdog, maybe 55-45.

It takes a lot more than a pot-sized bet to get me to fold the nut flush draw on an unpaired flop, even in a tournament.
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