Re: 15/30 - big pot, calldown.
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If the river was an A, I think I would still fold in this huge pot - no way is top pair good. Am I crazy?
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If you trust your read so much, and you were planning to fold a river A, why not fold on the turn? When he bets the turn, you are putting him on AQ/JJ/KK/QQ, right? You have 3 outs against AQ and KK, and 0 outs against the others.
avg outs = (9*3 + 3*0 + 3*0 + 3*3)/18 = 2
Not to mention that, no matter how sure you of this "won't bet river A with KK" read, there is always some chance you are wrong, so you will have to contend with some chance of folding the best hand in a big pot, or with reverse-implied odds.
Also, your live read of the turn bet seems to favor QQ/JJ for him -- so 2 outs seems generous.
Seems like a turn fold.
EDIT: I just realized his PF play discounts KK even further, which makes the turn fold seem even more clear...
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