Re: Oh Boy....
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You seem to be unfamiliar with what begs the efficiency of a betting market. While it's true that some people will always bet inefficiently, the mistake has negligible impact because the field of bettors is so limitless. The smart bettors will always, by betting more money until the inefficiency is gone, correct the errors of irrational bets.
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Well, right now on WSEX, Paul is 3 6. So I can short him now for 100, and wait 3-4 months for him to lose, so I can collect my 3 dollars. Or I can just go buy a CD or whatever. Betting markets factor in the opportunity cost of the money you'll have to tie up shorting a long shot like paul, which cause him to be quite overvalued.
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