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Old 04-19-2007, 07:03 PM
Wongboy Wongboy is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 613
Default Re: My First Horrible Beat

I'll use the other guys number since I am too lazy to look it up. Chip leader had a 4% chance of winning.

As a rule of thumb, I usually figure that I will need to win 5-6 hands where I am all-in in order to win a tourney. In other words, you should experience a beat like this, or worse, once every 5 tourneys you play. If this impacts your game, then find a way to understand that it is an expected part of poker.

My own worst run-in with variance was when I lost 4 consecutive hands where I flopped top set. That impacted my game, I went on tilt and proceeded to lose $500 at a $4/$8 limit game, hated myself in the morning, etc, etc, etc.

Here's what worked for me - I just rationalized that live poker must be rigged and played exclusively on-line for the next month. By the time I played live again, I had calmed down. YMMV.
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