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Old 10-08-2007, 07:00 PM
jbrennen jbrennen is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 148
Default Re: 15/30 Fun Razz Hand

Villain has an automatic bet on 6th street, whether he has a 5 already made, a 6-5, or a 7-5. If he has a 7-5 on 6th street, he'd figure that he's ahead unless we have exactly A-2 in the hole. Also, he has very little to worry about getting raised -- even a 7-perfect is going to have a really tough time raising or betting into a 5-3-2-A board.

So Villain probably has at least one of 4, 6, or 7 in the hole. On 6th street we were behind two of those possibilities and ahead of the other, so easy odds to call. On 7th street we're behind only one of those possibilities, and ahead of the other two -- throw in the chance that he was betting air on 6th street, and then factor in the chance that he caught a 4 on the river, which probably roughly cancel each other out, and we're probably ahead about 2/3 of the time on the end. Normally, I'd say just call, but because our hand is well disguised, I think that he'll 3-bet a 6-5 often enough that raising is possibly the way to go.
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