[marchron]

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marchron,

this is a nice clarification of the problem in a way, but it doesn't make it any less tough imo. we still have to weigh the chance that he IS indeed thinking on higher level than his previous play would indicate, or is simply chancing his way into a good play because he is confused. what does the dark bet mean in his case? adding up the intangibles to a number is not easy.

and there's more i forgot to post in the OP. apparently while my buddy was verbally debating if he should call the turn, this guy was smiling and talking. he said, "listen, i got you , but i want you to call" or something to that effect.

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The darkbet had already led me in this direction, but with that speech, Caro's First Law (strong equals weak) makes this an insta-call for me. It's a tougher proposition if this goes down on the flop instead of the turn, but getting 4-1 makes this ridiculously easy.