Re: nl200: bvb with an overpair: whats the best turn line?
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No one thinks this player's range includes a lot of floats in a blind battle? Villain usually doesn't have a hand that can stand two bets here. A player with 4.5 AF is probably raising almost any draw on the flop, so I don't think we need to be super worried about giving a free card.
Also, since we have QQ, if he has something like JT or 9T he is in really bad shape, so checking is less dangerous here.
Against a fishy player, betting is obviously correct here. Against a solid one, does it really maximize our expectation?
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This is a [censored] board to float with total air because it hit so many hands.
I think he checks back a lot, and most of the hands that he'd bet if checked to aren't folding if you bet.
I really disagree that he's raising any draw on the flop too. This is a good board to call with one draw and rep the other if it comes, and he has to worry about you shoving over a good sized raise.
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