[TNixon]

Simulator says:

Final result: p1 = -471660.000000, -0.471660/hand
Final result: p2 = 471660.000000, 0.471660/hand

But, again, this is not calculating EV. It's calculating total profit and loss.

And it should be fairly obvious that if you're flipping a weighted coin that is only 26% in your favor, and 74% in your opponents favor, that you're going to lose money in the long run.

Yet your EV calculation shows this to be a profitable situation?

Ignoring the posted blind gives you a very misleading (incorrect, IMO) result.

Which would indicate to me that you cannot ignore the posted blind.

Where math doesn't match reality, the math is wrong.

Try this:

Calculate the EV in your original game of folding 52-, and betting 53+, against somebody who will still call with 34+. This *should* end up being higher EV than betting 100% (if it doesn't, then I'm not sure what to say except that the math does not match the reality here).

But if betting 54+ and folding everything else *is* higher EV, that should throw a serious wrinkle into the "if betting 100% is +EV, then folding can never be the correct play" assumption.