[Vorlin]

Maybe I'm just wierd but again my logic is totally different, but I arrive at a common conclusion.

The CO is on KJ, QT or TT. Why?

He limped pre-flop to see what came on the flop, had enough faith in the hand to call the extra 450 pre-flop AND wasn't strong enough to bet out before seeing what the pre-flop raiser (the button) did. Now, with that Q, he's on the attack. Could it be a bluff? Sure, but that's a lot less likely when it's 3 way, it's early in the tournament and there are two people he has to deal with. However, he has nearly twice the stack of his opponents so, of the 3, he's the most likely to try a bluff since he can most easily absorb the hit if it goes sideways on him.

All things considered, he's most likely holding 2 pair, a set or a straight. This means KJ, QT or TT. remember, if he had QQ or JJ he couldn't have afforded to let his opponents see a free card on the turn and he's not likely to be on AA because he would have tried to isolate one opponent pre-flop. KK is a longshot and not very likely, but still possible if he was trying to slow play pre-flop... but I doubt that he's reckless enough to do that from the way he's described.

Now, this is where my logic deviates...

Any hand that the CO could have is the one we need to be concerned with, I agree. Any hand that the SB (MJ) might have had that would justify his actions so far is a hand that we will lose to if we lose to the CO, or that we will beat if we beat the CO. So we will either win the hand or come out sucking hind teat. Can we use that?

Yes.

If we push, it's likely that we'll get called and be a dog. Tournaments are about survival and pushing here and now isn't going to help us survive. If we raise 5k then the SB will most likely fold and we'll nearly be pot committed. If the CO calls then we're either all in on the river or we have to let it go... leaving us severly crippled and easy to pick off with a micro-stack. And for those lovely options what do we get?

We get 6950 for our 5000, because the SB folds... and that only if we're not re-raised all in by the CO. This is looking to be about as fun as a root canal.

But what if we only call? The SB is going to be looking at getting 4950 for his 1500 and even if he's only got an over pair, he'll probably call. It's extremely unlikely that he's going to raise into 2 callers who just ponied up 1500 each because, considering what we have and what we put the CO on, the SB can't be very far ahead, if he's even ahead at all.

By calling we will most likely get a call from the SB too, making the total pot 4950 for our 1500... which is a heck of a lot better than 6950 for 5000. This move also allows us to preserve our starting 10,000 so we won't be crippled if we're forced to let this hand go on the river.

When I look at it all that way, using my wierd-ling logic and looking at our great draws, it's an auto-call.

Vorlin