[bills217]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
3) The best way to get truly best-available lines is through successfully predicting the line moves of openers and betting accordingly. I usually know how good my CFB slate for the coming week is by Sunday at 8 PM EST (note this has nothing to do with results).

[/ QUOTE ]
bills,

Nice post. If you have the time, could you elaborate on this point? How do you go about predicting line movements? Is it by handicapping the individual teams? Or recognizing certain situations that generally indicate a line move one way or the other? Or looking at sites like Wagerline? Or something else entirely? I feel like this is the one aspect of my sports betting that is sorely lacking, so thanks for any help.

Thanks,
calm

[/ QUOTE ]

Basically I try to guesstimate a spread for the games involving teams I am familiar with enough to handicap before the lines come out, and then bet accordingly. Lately I have been trying to trust my instincts more and make more plays right at the open - I have been about 80% successful in being on the right side at the open. Results this week were mixed - more good sides, but also two stinkers (Texas +10 and Purdue +6.5) which I usually try to avoid at all costs.

Betting openers is really unique - the lines that are way off will be gone within 2 minutes. When they open, you have to be prepared, scour the board, prioritize your plays and size your bets in seconds, then have the guts to click confirm with the uncertainty of knowing where it will end up. The first 15-20 minutes are usually furious mouse-clicking for me. It is as much an art as a skill. One of the worst moments in life is when the line you love gets changed against you by 3 points at the confirm screen and you know it will never be back - they be stealin' my bucket!

Trying to cap games without the aid of lines already being posted is huge. Posted lines infect your thinking when handicapping - you should try to be as objective as possible. This also allows you to see how accurate you are - it's easy to take positions when the lines are right in front of you, but if you're consistently 10 points off the posted lines when working blind, chances are you aren't doing a very good job.

I usually don't use Wagerline, although I will occasionally take a glance if I'm curious about a certain game. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out what the public is doing. During the week I am mostly just hitting rogue lines anyway - 90% of my handicapping is done Sunday afternoon.

As far as the finer points of predicting the movements, it takes practice. You learn to focus on the key numbers and how much to bet when. I might rush to get a team I like at +7.5 where I would wait a bit longer on a team I like just as much at +9.5. Typically, lines only move 1 direction, but sometimes for whatever reason they will swing back and forth - Rutgers opened at -14 vs. Navy, swung to -13, I got some, swung to 12.5, I cautiously got some more, then rocketed back to Rutgers -16 within the hour. I rarely, rarely bet more than 3 units at the open, that way I can add just in case it moves against me/I find a rogue later. That said, Rutgers this week was an exception to that - Rutgers opened at -2.5 which was snapped up literally within 2 minutes (I had 2.5 and lost it at the confirm screen) - given that, how off I thought the line was, and how key the 3 is, I considered the probability of it going back to 2.5 to be pretty low, and lo and behold it is now 3.5.

As the article Naj posted states, people tend to overreact to news and the previous week's results. I try to read what people here are saying as much as possible to get a feel for the general sentiment around certain games and teams and mooch off their areas of expertise. The weekly early lines thread on Sunday afternoon is invaluable.