[manbearpig]

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Let me have a go at cherry picking numbers:


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Interesting, you previously asserted that an elite player begins to decline at age 30, and you insisted that we use HR Rate rather that absolute HR totals......

Thus, I used the HR Rate from the 5 seasons beginning at age 30....(comparing ages 30-34 and 35-39.)

And now, since they don't line up with your preconceptions....you suddenly want to change the criteria to a start at a different age (32), and suddenly want to shift back to absolute HR totals, rather than using the rate.

Sweet....

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From 1966 to 1969 (ages 32 to 35)
Aaron hit 84 hr's at home and 74 on the road.
From 1970 to 1973 (ages 36 to 39)
Aaron hit 97 hr's at home and 62 on the road.

Please to be explaining.

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Same explanation as before:

1. Hank had a more pronounced late career surge at home due to park effects.
2. Hank's road HR rate still increased. (despite you're attempt to disguise this by using absolute totals.)

HR Rate using your "cherry picked" time periods.

<u>AB/HR on the ROAD:</u>
Ages 32-35: 16.47
Ages 36-39: 14.97

Despite your attempts at cherry picking....it's still an increase in HR Rate on the road.

Oops...

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Agreed. I should have used ab/hr instead of raw numbers. I was busy at the time. I dont dispute your numbers. They are factually correct as far as I can tell. I ran the home numbers for the same period. I did it quickly so feel free to correct me if they are wrong.

From ages 32-35, Aaron hit a HR every 13.8 at bats at home.
From ages 36-39, Aaron hit a HR every 9.5 at bats at home.

The home difference is much larger than the road difference. I think that is clear.

What is interesting is that if you take into account what was happening in baseball around 1969 (age 35) there are pretty clear reasons that you would expect someones rates to increase slightly. DUCY?