SageStats ensign_lee
Earlier in the week (back before Thanksgiving), I hit up:
Carolina Panthers +3 (-115)
2 units at BetTrojan
With Vinny starting, I thought that the Panthers stood a good chance of winning the game outright and couldn't understand how the Saints were favored there.
Then the Panthers line went all screwy during the week. It went down earlier in the week, presumably because people had been hitting the +3.5's and +3's really hard...all teh way to +2. then, the news of Vinny's injury came in and then today it was confirmed he wouldn't play and the line shifted back to +3.
In the meanwhile, I got trapped playing
Carolina Moneyline +120
3 units at JustBet
Fortunately, I was able to see the news yesterday and so hedged out of both that 3 unit bet and the prior 2 unit bet with the following bet:
New Orleans -2 (-110)
5 units at BetTrojan
So Right now, should new Orleans win by just 1 or just 2, I will be in a world of hurt. Hopefully, that doesn't happen. Now, should new Orleans win by 3, then I'll be pretty happy, pushing my 2 unit +3 bet, losing my 3 unit moneyline bet, and winning my 5 unit -2 bet.
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Earlier in the week, I noticed that tons of bettors loved Cleveland against my Texans (and actually I was thinking my boys were going to get destroyed through the air and was thinking the same thing). But the line then moved from -4 to -3.5, where it held for a few days before finally shifting to -3. Fortunately, i was able to hit up
Houston +3.5 (-115)
2 units at BetTrojan
before the line shifted to 3's completely. I kind of had a hunch it was going there, but didn't know for sure. Heck, now that it's been at 3 awhile, it seems like the juice is heavy on the 3 and it could move back to -3.5. I think it'll stay at 3, though.
But when the line moved to 3, I added the following:
Houston Moneyline (+150)
3 units at BetTrojan
Usually when enough money is present to move a line on/off the 3 going BACKWARDS with what you'd think the line would do, that makes me look closely at a game and usually I end up making it one of my bigger plays. About 70% of the public is on Cleveland and it's one of the larger bet games of the day. and yet the line moved backwards A FULL POINT, and onto the 3 at that.
As for the rest of the card, I didn't see too much that interested me. Just the following:
San Diego -8.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
It's hard getting over an close, tight loss, especially with a rival. It's even harder when you thought you won the game and then had to come back out to play some more...and then lost. I'm sure that the players were distracted for a bit of practice this week and well...that's all it'll take. Plus, the Chargers at home, when healthy, should be able to fire on all cylinders (emphasis on *should*). I think that they can take care of business here.
Oakland Raiders +4 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
Yeah. I got the ass end of the line here. But I could hit up the +180's that were out there at any of my books. The line's been steadily dropping with about 2 bets on KC for every one on Oakland. From 6 all the way to 4. Now, some of this is due to Priest Holmes's injury, but not all of it. Plus, Pinnacle has been consistently holding the worst prices on betting on Oakland all week. And, when I placed this bet, they were holding KC +107, meaning they'd take Oakland +4 at -107, and I was getting it at -105. Anything pinnacle is willing to take, I'm willing to take