Re: Pitt -6 at Arizona...
People who are pimping Pitt right now are already late to the party. There's absolutely no value on Pitt -6/-7, as that's about where the line should be.
I have Arizona and SF ranked pretty closely as far as power rankings go -- they're pretty much equal. Last week Pitt was the best value on the board, imo, as you could get them at -8.5/-9. Adjusted for neutral field, Pit was favored by -5.5/-6 over SF, whom they were clearly superior than. Now, against an AZ team who's ranked about the same as SF, Pit is favored by -9/-10 adjusted for a neutral field, so it's pretty easy to see that this is a pass.
I haven't done any analysis on the O/U, so I can't offer an opinion on that, but the only profitable side on this game is setting up a middle*, which has already been discussed in this thread (*if the line continues to climb high enough, then there may actually be value on AZ, but I don't anticipate this happening). And it's obviously too late to set up a middle now.
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