Why is it -ev to call ?
I'll make a thorough explaination here since I've not posted much on the forum aswell and you guys seem interested in understanding ICM. This is probably done in other posts here but I can take this hand example to perhaps make it interesting to read.
First, let's figure out our stack value. In a 10player $100 SNG with a 50/30/20 payout (using
http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php):
Fold:
1815 chips = $177.6
Not taking into account all variables like the shover getting called etc. This would be your equity by folding, the same as when the hand starts.
Now, we must check if we gain more than $177.6 if we call.
Call and lose = $0
Call and win = 3990 chips = $312
Any two cards:
Let's open pokerstove. We figure out the AQ's equity against a random hand. AQo is 64.4% to win. So.
64.4% of the time, you double up. (However that does not at all mean that your stack value has doubled as you can see above)
We win $312 only 64% of the time when we call. Therefore:
0.644*312 = $200.9
Difference = +$23.3
Now, being on the button opens the chances of other players calling the shove aswell and that will definitely happen, but not taking that into account now but that is why SnG Wiz has this as -EV. SNGEGT has this as a clear call if the shover had any two.
"Realistic" average range:
AT+,77+,KQs
AQ is now 40.4% to win. So:
0.404*312 = $126
Difference: -$51.6
We can see that half your buyin gets wasted making this call in this case [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] not good
"Tight expert"'s range:
Maybe 88, but we give him
99+,AQ+
AQ's equity = 35,5%
0.355*312 = $110.76
Difference: -$66.84 (give money to beggar on the street instead, this would just be silly)
Neither of these take into account split pots or overcalls. Hope this helps..