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Old 11-24-2007, 09:27 PM
Todd Terry Todd Terry is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: The Bellagio
Posts: 676
Default Re: Very ugly spot w/ set vs. THE__D__RY in 50r

Giving the 7 Villains random distributions of cards, the probability you're up against a made flush when the flop hits is around 26%. (I did an approximation by calculating for 1 player and multiplying by 7 and taking off a bit, but this is going to be damn close, and doing it exactly is a monumental pain in the ass). A non-random distribution which accounts for the fact that they called pre is undoubtedly slightly biased toward suited cards, so the true conditional probability is probably a bit higher. You should all keep this number in mind, because you'll often be faced with a situation where 8 people see the flop and you flop bottom set on a monochrome board.

Edit: I did it exactly with random cards for the 7 villains, the answer is 24.75652%.
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