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Old 10-05-2007, 01:15 PM
DeadMoneyDad DeadMoneyDad is offline
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Default Re: 2008 Presidential Primaries

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I'm not sure that I understand your point, but I disagree with (what I think) are the conclusions you're drawing. Specifically, the visceral hatred many Republicans feel toward Hillary Clinton makes it IMO far less likely that reactionary Christians will support a 3rd party candidate. In fact, even if a less polarizing figure was to be nominated by the Democrats, I think history shows that support will wane significantly for a non-billionaire 3rd party candidate as the general election nears. Due to this IMO inevitable effect, I don't think it makes it worth either supporting or opposing Giuliani on this basis alone. In terms of "electability" I think there are much more important factors.

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I guess I have no points, only opinions based on limited knowledge.

While the general concensus is Hillary on the top of the ticket against a well financed non-primary crippled GOP'er is a race. But Hillary scares the hell out of the GOP and the ticket combinations can possibly hit on a winner that include her IMO.

If you add in any type of additional ballot mess like any type of third part candidate then your race becomes something less than a coin flip. The GOP has been burned by Perot and was almost burned by Nader. A half decent showing in any singlke state and Liberman might be running for the top slot in '08.

Any 3rd party candidate with a 1/2 a$$ed Karl Rove if they wanted to knows they can swing the outcome if that was their goal.

I don't put it past Dobson to try to do exaclty that against a less than 100% FoF candidate, at least now from here, how long it might last is an open question. If he has any power ot thinks he does, he might try to mix up a couple of early primaries with a good few later showings in strategic states just to demand a seat at the convention back room table. Then if he doesn't get his full measure of his imagined worth, take his ball and go home or look for another game.

Personally I don't think Dobson can raise the money to be a factor, most of his messages are crap and his support's make most "on-line poker is RIGGED!" posters look complety reasonable by comparision.

I just said the GOP has a major fear of a 3rd party candidate messing up a tight race.


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