Re: Variance
[ QUOTE ]
"0.25....1941
0.5.....970"
what some excellent players are experiencing. TOUGH GAMES! have fun kids.
[/ QUOTE ]
these are "bankroll requirements" with a 5% risk of ruin. that's their chance of going busto without ever adding to or removing from their bankrolls. in other words, there's a 5% chance they'll have a downswing that big starting right now. over a long time period, they're almost certain to have a downswing that big.
does anyone know how to calculate the chances of having an x BB downswing over y hands based on winrate/sd? my statistics knowledge is a bit weak. if that's too difficult, has anyone run any monte carlo simulations for this kind of stuff? if not, i think i might do that sometime soon. it should be pretty straightforward. if anyone's less lazy than me and wants to code a simulation before i do, please send source code and results.
i feel like something like this was done a while ago, but it wasnt very extensive... if anyone knows where the threads are, link me.
|