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Old 09-22-2006, 12:53 AM
olivert olivert is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2006
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Default Re: how can poker be dying...

US and Canada:

2003: WPT airs on Travel Channel (US) and City TV (Canada), Chris Moneymaker wins WSOP. Poker craze starts.

2004: WPT signs big TV rights fee deal, TV ratings peak, WSOP main event triples in field size. DOJ begins advertising crackdown against online poker rooms.

2005: Copycat TV shows flood airwaves, ratings go down. NBC Heads-Up takes over TV ratings lead from WSOP. Online poker "schools" air .NET ads instead of .com ads to get around DOJ ban on TV ads by online gaming businesses.

2006: Ratings for NBC Heads-Up and WSOP flatten. Some copycat TV shows disappear and other projects got killed on launching pad. TV rights fees disappear as time buy TV poker shows dominate airwaves. ESPN no longer pays cash for rights to WSOP Main Event. Two online sportsbook executives arrested in the U.S. Washington state passes draconian law to threaten owners and editors of gambling-related media outlets with arrest if they were to step foot into Washington state.

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European Continent (excluding UK):

2005: EPT hits airwaves in Europe. DSF airs FullTilt Monaco Invitational in Germany.

2006: EPT season 2 hits airwaves with expanded coverage and record ratings. DSF in Germany bought a ton of TV poker from ESPN and FOX Sports and airs poker weekly. Crackdown over online gaming advertising starts in Germany, with bwin taking brunt of crackdown. Arrest of bwin executives in France. Italy gets into the act by blocking Internet traffic to gaming sites.

2007: Copycat TV shows hit airwaves in Europe (French Poker Tour, German Poker Tour, Showdown Poker Tour, Million Dollar Cash Games, etc.) Time buy TV poker begins to displace rights fee deals.

(One would expect TV ratings to peak on the European Continent in 2006, with flattening by 2008, and time buys to displace rights fees by 2008.)

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East Asia:

2006: Wynn Macau opens.

2007: WPT hits airwaves in Macau and Singapore. Venetian Macau, MGM Grand Macau, Crown Casino Macau, and Galaxy Mega Resort Macau (Harrah's?) open.

2008: first WPT event in Macau?

2009: Sands Marina Bay casino opens in Singapore

2010: Sentosa Island casino opens in Singapore

(I expect time buy TV poker to dominate in East Asia as soon as Harrah's buys time to air the WSOP on ESPN STAR Sports. Also, the rumored Pudong casino project in Shanghai is the big unknown for the time being.)
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