Re: 100NL defend blinds with AJ
ok did some math.
if we assume he cold calls with all pairs and AKs, he will call the flop with 33+,AsKs (67 combos)and he will call a shove with 33,77,JJ+ and AsKs (31 combos).
Against his calling range on the turn I have 15.8% equity.
Board: 7h 4s 3s Qs
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 15.806% 15.81% 00.00% 153 0.00 { AdJs }
Hand 1: 84.194% 84.19% 00.00% 815 0.00 { JJ+, 77, 33, AsKs }
He will call the flop with 67 combos, of which he will call the turn with 31 and fold 36 combos.
If he folds I pick up the pot of 68.
If he calls I will win 134 15% of the time = 20.
If he calls I will lose 66 85% of the time = 56.
If he calls I will have a net result of 20-56= -36.
36 of 67 combos = 54% he will fold the turn shove
31 of 67 combos = 46% he will call the turn shove
so 0.54 * 68 + 0.46 * -36 = +20
If all assumptions are correct a shove is +EV.
any comments?
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