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Old 11-13-2007, 04:30 AM
One Outer One Outer is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2007
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Default Re: A hand that a friend asked me to post

Ok. I've spent a couple of minutes thinking about this. However, and I recognize that it's unlikely you know, it would be helpful to know who this villain was if he's a reg.

I think a lot of players will peel that flop very light, especially passive ones. The board is real drawy and it's the kind of board that you will see a lot of people peel with like the J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], KQ with one club, QT, Q9 or Q8 with the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], that sort of thing. So I think just checking to the callers is probably -EV. They're peeling light often enough that b/f is +EV, especially on that card because opponents will often peel again while you still have an edge.

Given that, we are well ahead of that guys peeling range and should have b/f the turn. I'm not calling passive guys turn raise.

Once villain bets his own hand, though, that significantly tightens up his range. He is not betting any of those peeling hands. I think his range is heavily tilted towards the big stuff, straight, flush, slowplayed set. The only hands I can think of that a very passive player might play that way where I can continue the hand are AK-AJ. They'll cc preflop and then just call straight down with that stuff all the time. Once you show some sort of weakness they may wake up and bet but I think we have to heavily discount this because of the board texture and OP's read.
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