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Old 11-26-2007, 06:20 PM
Berge20 Berge20 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Grinding Away
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Default Re: NL 100: AKo Squeeze

You guys really think the shorter stack flat caller is folding here all the time? I think he is the more likely of the two to call--and with the much wider range.

Plus, if CO calls...BT is getting crazy pot odds on his remaining money.

So I felt in order of likelihood:
BT calls
Both fold
Both call
CO calls

Here is how I viewed the scenarios.

CO Range: JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AK with a very tiny TT/AQs/Bluff
BT Range: 77+ AQ+ without AA/KK often

Against BT only I have 51% Equity
Against both players, I have ~25% Equity
Against only CO I have ~40% Equity

So, I'm in great shape if only BT calls:
Pot ~$94 (47 Equity--42 invested)

I'm happy if both fold: ($31)

If both call:
Main pot will be ~$122 (against CO and BT) (31 Equity)
Side pot will be ~$57 (against CO) (23 Equity)

If only CO calls pot is ~$155 (62 Equity)

Obviously I couldn't do this type of math on the spot, but I figured this was roughly where I was at. Seemed like the right move. Good discussion
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