[Jw513]

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with only 50 hands how can we say that villain

i) hasn't simply been card dead for all this time and now has JJ or AK
ii) is really a nit
iii) wasn't distracted by other stuff (TV gf etc) while playing...

50 hands is little dat ato go on - it tends to suggest this is AA/KK but not much more than that.

Collect 1000 hands data telling you he has 9/1/1 stats and now we can draw conclusions...

also a call here IS +EV - so best play is to call. But all the peoples saying "snap call with fist pump" think a little.

His range here is JJ+ AK pretty much

overall we are a 52/48ish UNDERDOG if that range is right (add in a bluff once in a blue moon and we're a favourite again) but barely

Vs 1 hand in that range we are a big fav (JJ) vs 1 we split vs 2 we are a big dog and a "coinflip" 55/45 favourite v AK.

If he's weighting these hands (only doing this with black Jacks red Queens all Aces/Kings and all AK's) and not playing 100% of them - it's bad call. (we are ~40/60 dog)

So - if this is a +EV call it is JUST +EV.

There is no shame in folding these situations preflop until we gots a read. These flips for whole stacks are very BIG on variance. By all means snap call with double fistpump and jig dancing if you think you are 0.0000000001% ahead and you are emotionally equipped and bakrolled enough to handle the big swingy variance.

But if losing a stack to a misclicked K7o or to AA/KK will tilt you and make you play bad afterwards - or your bankroll is thin on the ground I fold here without thinking about it.

Personally I'd call just to see his cards - and then make a note.

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This is a great post. I knew his range was JJ+, AK, but the fact that there could be other factors that alter his range made me call (he could be tilting, or just card dead and getting bored). I knew I only had JJ dominated and flipping or bad shape against his other range.. but I was thinking to myself... "I would be the biggest nit ever if I fold this.." But I guess others suggest folding would be the best option.

Bankroll could also be a reason for folding which is a good point you made. But I am well rolled for this and can handle the variance.

For ppl saying to fold, would you call if your bankroll was 30+ BI?