[Lottery Larry]

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Scenario 2:

Go fo it (~35%) * xtra point (~95%) * xtra point (~95%) = .31

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How do we factor in the chance of being able to kick the ending field goal for the tie, rather than having to score a TD, if things don't work out?

If you assume 3 scores are needed to tie or win, won't you go for 2 on the first touchdown? if you miss it, then 2 more TDs + XP gives you the win.

If you make it, you can go for 2 on the second TD as well. If you make it, then you DON'T have to score a TD to tie/win. If you don't make it, you score a TD + 1 to tie.

Should the calculations reflect this? Since you're not including the % difficulty of scoring 2 TD against a preventative defense, maybe that's not part of the analysis.

Below, I'm just trying to calculate the chance of going for 1 and leaving a chance for a game-typing FG.
This may not be the correct calculation, since I can't see it being only a 0.6% chance of tying the game and then winning in OT (?)-

<font color="blue">Scenario 1:

Kick field goal (~95%) * 25% score TD * 2point conversion (~45%) * 25% score TD * 2nd 2 point conversion (~45%) * win in OT (~50%) = 0.006372421875 </font>


<font color="green">Scenario 2:

Go fo it (~35%) * xtra point (~95%)* 25% score TD * 95% XP * {0.30 *[25% score TD * xtra point (~95%)] +0.70*[70% long FG * 50% win in OT]} = 0.0225328125</font>

Wow- that would mean you're 4x likely to win going for it now rather than kicking the FG now.