Villain is 15/12/3 thru 1200 hands. I'm running 19/18 thru 100 hands at this table. Villain prob. has me around 20/16 overall I would guess. We got it aipf when we both had AKs much earlier in the session, but it was my CO open vs. his BB 3bet and my 4bet, so obv. a little different.
Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com -
Hand History Converter
BB: $393.55
UTG: $235.10
MP: $99.55
CO: $362.95
BTN: $39.55
Hero (SB): $207.10
Pre-Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $8</font>, MP folds, CO calls $8, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $36</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">UTG raises to $86</font>, CO folds,
I know many, many of you are going to say, SHOVE, lol, wtf, we have a king and another king, go all in. And, OMG it looks like you're squeezing. I don't think anyone has reasonable proof of 15/12's 4betting light from utg 5 handed in any situation. Let me give some math here.
We need at least 40% avg. equity against his range to make shoving profitable assuming he's obv. never folding.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.293% 43.79% 03.51% 67479612 5402286.00 { KK }
Hand 1: 52.707% 49.20% 03.51% 75823176 5402286.00 { KK+, AKs, AKo }
Using an unweighted range here, we only have 47% equity which includes a 3.5% tie. If you weight his range AT ALL, I think a very strong argument can be made for folding this.