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Old 11-03-2007, 09:26 PM
aislephive aislephive is offline
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Default Re: $400NL. DEEP with set. WTF?!?!?!?

Eh disagree with others that it's an obvious call. I would fold if I was playing good, I think. People don't really get out of line in spots like this deep, especially if he has been getting the best of you and expects you to call down light.

How big is this sample on him? The 4 AF for those relatively passive preflop stats leads me to believe that we're working with a pretty small sample, so I don't know if I would consider those stats reliable. If it is over a big sample, I agree that it's definitely a call, I just havent't seen any of these passive preflop types that have an AF that high.

Thing is, he called this flop in a multiway pot after you opened utg and cbet a coordinated flop into two players. I don't think almost anybody's range for peeling this flop is big. He never will have KJ/AQ or something imo. And two pair/sets are almost always raising the flop here. To me a lot of his range is flushes, and then some float/bluffs with stuff like a gutshot on the flop.

Tough spot, but I think people overestimate how often a certain player is bluffing them based on a couple hands. He probably doesn't espect you to fold much after you call the turn, so I'd be pretty worried when he raises small on the turn and bets biggish on the river.
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