Re: How often do the odds makers \"get it right\"?
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books are more casual about their opening lines than you might expect, because they know the market will bang them into place before the limits get high.
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My first oddsmaking assignment:
BOSS: Why don't you make some matchups for the Senior PGA tournament next week?
ME: I know absolutely nothing about golf. I can not name two current Senior PGA golfers.
BOSS: Don't worry about it. We've got some stats you can look at.
ME: (peeing my pants)
BOSS: (trying to comfort me) Look, we'll only take a nickel, use a 30-cent line, and move it aggressively.
(translation: we'll set the max bet at "only" $500, we'll make the favorite 30 cents higher than the dog--ie, -140/+110--and we'll move the line at least 25 cents every time a sharpie bets at it, which should quickly "bang them into place before the limits get high".)
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