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Old 10-04-2007, 05:48 AM
youtalkfunny youtalkfunny is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Exiled from OOT
Posts: 6,767
Default Re: How often do the odds makers \"get it right\"?

[ QUOTE ]
books are more casual about their opening lines than you might expect, because they know the market will bang them into place before the limits get high.

[/ QUOTE ]

My first oddsmaking assignment:

BOSS: Why don't you make some matchups for the Senior PGA tournament next week?

ME: I know absolutely nothing about golf. I can not name two current Senior PGA golfers.

BOSS: Don't worry about it. We've got some stats you can look at.

ME: (peeing my pants)

BOSS: (trying to comfort me) Look, we'll only take a nickel, use a 30-cent line, and move it aggressively.

(translation: we'll set the max bet at "only" $500, we'll make the favorite 30 cents higher than the dog--ie, -140/+110--and we'll move the line at least 25 cents every time a sharpie bets at it, which should quickly "bang them into place before the limits get high".)
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