[Buzz]

Hi Niggel - Your starting hand is fine. But with this particular flop you don't have a good kicker for your trips and you only have a back-door low. And in addition to being out-kicked if you don't improve to a full house, you have to worry about the heart draw.

So it's a very iffy hand after the flop, despite having flopped trip aces.

On the one hand, your flopped trip aces need all the protection they can get, meaning you want to bet - and on the other hand, you're very much on a draw yourself, meaning you want to keep it cheap.

If you do make a full house, it's probably good, but vulnerable. (You definitely want to make quads or a full house here!)

But all that makes the hand/flop very difficult to play.

Five of you saw the flop so that your opponents have 16 cards between them. On that basis, it's 16/45 that one of them has the missing ace. But nine opponents were originally dealt cards. On that basis, assuming anyone who was dealt an ace would see the flop, it's 36/45 that one of your opponents has the missing ace. Thus it's somewhere between 16/45 and 36/45 that an opponent has the missing ace, probably closer to the latter number than the former. Before any action on the second betting round, I'd guesstimate it's maybe about 75% or 3 to 1 that an opponent has the missing ace.

Raisebet bets 2/5 of the pot and Tho100920 calls.

Now it really looks like one of these guys has the missing ace. And if that is the case, since your kicker stinks, you really need to make a full house. In other words, you really want the turn to be a deuce, trey, or preferably a seven. (Ideally you want the turn to be an ace, but that's unrealistic at this point).

At any rate, you call. Fine. You're going to get to see the turn cheaply. Fine.

But then the turn is an eight. Ugh. And at this point Raisebet bets the pot. Double ugh. And then Tho100920 calls. Triple ugh.

Ugh, ugh, ugh.

Now you're drawing for low with 15/44 good cards for low, and you're still drawing for high, with another 9/44 mediocre cards for high. We might refine that a bit. I didn't count the ace because I think one of your opponents has it.

Still, roughly half the time maybe you'll get half the pot. So with implied pot odds it's very close. Tempting to call.

Then the river is bad for you (quadruple ugh) and you fold to a huge bet. Seems right to me.

[ QUOTE ]
Is calling the flop okay?

[/ QUOTE ]Yes. But then you have to get lucky on the turn and river. (And that doesn't happen).
[ QUOTE ]
Is calling the turn okay?

[/ QUOTE ]Seems very close to me. I think I'd fold to the action. I'd be more worried about Tho100920, but I'd be worried about Raisebet too. Seems like a potential situation developing where you might be more damned if you make your full house or nut low than if you miss.

Keep in mind that my primary game if fixed-limit Omaha-8.

Buzz