[Bond18]

All,

I'm pretty open minded about whether pre flop is good/bad, but i really can promise at least two players in this hand were abysmal stations.

Some other factors to think about:

Live players are obsessed with protecting their hand. I think if he has a set he almost always bets the flop since i'm not PFR and has no reason to think i'll bet for him. I also think if he has a flush that's not the nuts he's pretty damn likely to either bet flop, check raise flop, or check raise turn.

Conversely, live players are obsessed with the slow play. If he has the nuts he very well may check it all three streets, and he might perceive K high flush as basically the nuts.

I think it's quite possible he check called two streets with QJ. I also think it's quite possible he flat called KK with Ks pre flop and check called two streets.

Sass also brought up the fact that the J hitting river isn't always a bad thing, since he may show up with KsJ or AsJ. Obviously though, it's not our favorite card.

There's been some good discussion here from a number of players i respect, and i'm still pretty undecided.