[blah-blah-blah]

lets say his range is QQ/AJ/JTs/TT-88 (reasonable imo), and assume he folds QQ 60% and Jx 40%. lets compare call vs. shove.

36 combos of TT-88, 24 combos of QQ/AJ/JTs so:

Call EV: +$510 x 60% + -$170 x 40% = +$238

Shove EV: +$510 x (60% + (20% x 60%) + (20% x 40%)) + (-$548.10 x (20% x 40% + 20% x 60%) = +$298.38

dunno what a realistic fold % would be but if we assume he folds QQ and Jx w/ the same frequency, he needs to fold about 35.7% of the time to make it as much EV as calling.