[jjshabado]

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Hero just lost a big pot to MP when hero floped a set of fours on a AK4 board, capped the flop, bet the turn and river and lost to a set of kings.

MP is a regular who plays tight-passive. Will rarely raise a big street without the nuts or close to it.

Button is a horrible preflopLAG/postflopLP. She tends to call down anytime she has a piece of the board/ace high, and she'll take one off on the flop with very little. She also tends to bet when checked to even with no pair. She only raises with big hands though.

MP+2 seems somewhat TAGish, but is still probably too passive. He probably does know how to raise for a free card, although I haven't seen him do it.

5 people limp (including MP, MP+2, and Button). Hero raises in the SB with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. BB calls. Everyone calls.

Flop (7 players, 14 SB): K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero bets [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. Two folds. MP calls. MP+2 raises. Button calls. Hero Calls (intending to raise the turn) [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]. MP raises. MP+2 calls. Button calls. Hero folds. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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call and see one more

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If K pairs: we have 10 outs on turn
If board or Q pairs: we have 4 outs on the turn

So K Scenario is: 2/46 * 10/45 = 4.3% * 22.2% = ~0.95%
Other SCenario is: 9/46 * 4/45 = 19.6% * 8.9% = ~1.75%

So we have a 2.7% chance of winning this hand, assuming somebody has the flush already.

Which is ~36:1. Given that about 1/2 the time we make our full house with the board double pairing (and so we have little implied odds on the river). We're only getting 25:1 (or there abouts) and if we improve on the turn, we still have to put more money in the pot, so our actual pot odds are lower.

I think the read of someone having the flush is solid enough that this is a clear fold.

I welcome corrections on the math, since I could easily have [censored] it up.