[KneeCo]

Very strange check. I'm beginning to strongly suspect that the villain is not very good, check-min-raising the flop and then checking the turn? I can't think of two cards with which I would say he is playing the hand particularly well (from his POV of course, not knowing Hero's cards). Can anyone else?

In the first thread of the series, I said that he may very well check-raise the flop with nothing, because the flop seems to have missed Hero much more often than not (assuming standard starting hands). When that check raise turned out to be a mini raise, it seemed not as likely that the villain was just trying to get Hero to cont. bet and fold. Now, the check on the turn muddles things up again.

Nevertheless, I believe strongly that Hero is ahead here and the villain, and must bet. It's very possible that the villain is on a draw here, and the CR was a semi-bluff designed to win the pot right there, or get a free river card if the turn didn't hit him. Hero simply cannot give a free card here when so many cards can hurt him (this is especially true in this hand, because while there are obvious trouble cards, Hero's hand can quite easily be beat by a number of river cards that seem like bricks).

There is now t770 in the pot, and Hero has t2160 behind. I think a bet of 600 is appropriate. If the villain check raises again, I would have to cringe at the thought that he is holding the two remaining 5s or the like (and was curiously not deterred by the draw-heavy board), but while I may think at such a juncture it's possible that I would be behind, I don't think that would be the case often enough to muck the hand, and I would probably go all-in with bottom two on this board, especially given that we are playing in a tournament where only 5% of the field makes the money (an important consideration when looking at this hand IMO, despite the fact that's it early on in the tournament).