[Ricks]

12% seems to be a good figure.


Assuming that if villain calls the turn raise you must hit your flush to win.

If you just call and will win one bet on the river if you hit your draw the EV is:

(9/46*6.75)+(37/46*-1) = +0.52 BB

Assuming that Villain will fold 12% of the time to your turn raise and will call half the time that you hit your draw on the river the EV is:

(12%*5.75) + (88%*9/46*7.25) +(88%*37/46*-2) = +0.52

edit: fixed mistakes