[shemp]

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It amuses me how much we can talk about such things and even purport to do so logically and intelligently without referring to life tables.

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Well, they're not that significant. The great majority of 40 yos make it to 65, so the question becomes one of medical advancement and the avoidance of large scale threats to survival.

I have to go with medicine. 25 years will see many of the aging related diseases cured or at least well managed, particularly the big killers of cancer and heart disease.

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So you've reviewed life tables and watched how they've changed as mortality rates have increased (due in part to advancements in medicine) and you've found they have little to bear on the present question that isn't eclipsed by your ability to predict watershed advancements in medicine radically affecting mortality rates in the next 25 years. Fascinating.

As long as we are bloviating, I predict changes in preventative medicine will have a greater affect on mortality rates in the next 40 years than advancements in chronic care.