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Old 05-15-2007, 10:42 AM
johnnyrocket johnnyrocket is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: 8 tabling and raising all donk bets
Posts: 3,679
Default Re: Knowing your math. Basic draws.

1) we are getting 80-40 on our draw, or 2-1, the flush is to hit slightly less than 4-1. However, we can fold on the river UI, so if we think we can our opponent to call a bet over $80+ on the river, making our turn call 40 to win 160+, then our call is correct, if we think he will fold too often to this bet when we hit then it is correct to fold on the turn, so it is player dependent

2) a little more complex, we might only be drawing dead to the straight as our hole cards may make the villain 2 pair so we need to consider reverse implied odds, if villain bets we must call 25 to win 68, these odds are not good considering the implied odds

i see too many people just saying fold or something without good explanations, if it is checked to us here we need to consider how often we think the bet will take the pot down, if we bet 30 then we are laying 30 to win 43 so this has to work 30/73 times to be successful, we need to think of the bet sizes here and how often they will work. Then we need to consider our river line if he calls, do we fire again and if so will both bluffs be successful enough to make a profit given our odds on the pot, if we fired 30 on turn and need to fire another 80 on the river, 110 to win 43+30 that is in pot from flop and villain, then our play needs to work 110/183 to be successful, plus we need to factor in the 10% chance if we hit and get paid off. This is complex and many different scenarios can be divulged in deeper

3)I am probably folding hand, we need to call 44 to win 76+44=120, so we are gettin 120-44 on our odds, we are 4-1 to hit the straight about, a little more like 16% plus 2 spades may not be good so I will subtract an out here and give us 7, so we are a 39-7 dog here. He is nitty so I don't think we can push him off his bet here and I don't think we can make up enough ground on the river if we hit to make this profitable


Okay, so where is my prize?
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