Re: How often is this a bluff?
Alobar -
I think calling preflop is best against this villain, but given he's in the CO a 3bet isn't really bad or anything. I'd still prefer a call, but it's not a HUGE deal imo.
Once he flat calls the 3bet OOP, I really don't think you're looking at a pair lower than yours very often at all. In your discussion you seem to feel 99- is in his range, and in my experience those hands just aren't in his range - and are DEFINITELY not in his range after he c/c's the flop.
With the 3bet preflop, I think checking back this flop isn't terrible since I think a lot of his range has you beat, and I don't think he's going to get porky with AK here. If I did cbet the flop, I'd be shutting down for sure if I got any action.
With the weird turn bet, I think he's on JJ-KK here A LOT and he *might* be looking to bet/fold here. Still, I'd need a very solid read that he would make a weak fold with JJ-KK to consider anything besides folding.
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