[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
A6-AT are good candidates

[/ QUOTE ]Stylite - I'd enlarge the the range to at least include A5.

But here's the thing: in order to play A5-AT, S.B. has to have a starting hand with two cards in the five-ten range. (otherwise he'll play his ace with whatever other card is in his hand, with the possible exception of a deuce.

Crudely and approximately relatively, S.B. has 2*24*23/2 = 552 ways to have two cards in that range to go with an ace.

Meanwhile, S.B. has 2*24*14 = 672 ways to have one card in the five-ten range and the other card a king, queen, four, or three (to go with the ace).

He might be hesitant to bet AK or AQ, but reticent to fold. But that's only 2*24*8 of the possibilities.

You'd think he would not be hesitant to bet A3 or A4, the other 2*24*6 of the possibilities, but a regular Omaha player (such as me) might tend to be wary of betting A3 or A4, certainly in a full, loose Omaha game, but maybe also in C.P.

I don't know..... sets are not far fetched in C.P., although you'd think that S.B. would bet a set.

S.B. might also be hesitant with no ace but with two bottom pairs.

Or he might check/call with a five and a six but no ace (open ended straight draw).

Would he call with less, say a pair lower than aces, 55 maybe? ...or even a three or four with a king kicker? (You or I probably wouldn't check/call with K4, but you never know about some opponents).

A jack would be the worst. You'd hate yourself if you played your A2 while S.B. played his AJ.

A deuce would also hurt. You'd hate yourself if you didn't play your AJ and your opponent played an A2. He might be hesitant to bet either AJ or A2.

Seems not clear cut to me. S.B. could have a number of hands such that keeping your AJ would be better than keeping your A2. Considering the hesitation to bet, the decision seems very close. I hadn't fully considered the hesitation when I wrote my first post in this thread. That does make it closer.

What tips the balance for me is that he could be playing a whole bunch of pairs KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, even 22. There are a total of fifty four of these possible pairs, and 40*54 = 2160 ways to have one of these pairs with a card other than an ace. I wouldn't pay to play one of these pairs after an A34 flop, but I know people who would. That 2160 added to 672 dwarfs the 552 for an ace plus two cards in the mid-range. I didn't add in AJ and A2 or 56, and probably some others, but it doesn't seem necessary. There simply are a lot more ways for S.B. to have something other than A2, A5-AJ than for S.B. to have a hand in that range.

Slow playing a flopped set or straight for one round is yet another possibility. That would seem poor play after this particular flop, but still it's a possibility.

At any rate, even giving consideration to S.B.'s reticence to bet, I still think he's more likely not to hold A2,A5-AJ than he is likely to hold a hand in that range. And Hero's A2 is better against all these various other aceless and A3, A4, AQ, AK hands than AJ would be.

Buzz