Re: Theoretical question, calling all in early
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Slim, I'm not sure I understand how you are getting a % answer from a coin-flip perspective. If you could find that link or provide some more detail, I'd be really interested. Thx.
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Basically, it's a 1-D diffusion model. The "player" starts at the bottom of a 9-unit line. It moves up and down randomly with a probability p of moving up and 1-p of moving down. If it goes out the bottom, it's a loss. If it makes it all the way to the top, it's a win. Expand it to say if it makes it to one of the top three spaces, it's an ITM. Allow the other stacks to diffuse around so there can be confrontations where players move more than one unit at a time. Run 10^6 of these and and the value of p that comes close to a 10% ROI was about 57.5%, IIRC. Anyway, I could redo the whole thing at some point if people are interested in the results, but it's really not that interesting.
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