Re: Theoretical question, calling all in early
You can do a neat little trick where you calculate the probability of finishing ITM by taking random coin flips. I don't remember the details but the answer I came up with was about 57.5% based on some reasonable assumption of a player with a decent skill edge, maybe 10% ROI. The thread was a similar one from about two years ago. It's nice that it agrees well with the ICM result as being "a decent amount better than even money like in a cash game, and a little better than what it would be in a tournament if all skill was equal."
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