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Old 11-19-2007, 07:59 PM
StellarWind StellarWind is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 6,569
Default Re: Every street debatable

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His river raise is completely bizarre and I can't put him on a hand.

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He probably has 33 or 54. Or maybe he has a normal turn raise but waited for the river for some fishy reason.

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just calling to see what he has is worth the 1 BB IMO. Then make a note.

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This is silly. You call or fold based on pot odds and your chance of winning.

Do you really think you can make up a significant fraction of a lost BB just by seeing this one hand? Then think how much money you could make by carefully watching the table and making notes on all the hands you are not involved in. In a hundred hands you would have many dozens of good notes and you would be rich. No more multitabling--just play one table, watch carefully, take lots of notes, and make 10+ BB/100.

Reads are valuable but don't overrate them. Reads don't matter unless they cause you to make a different decision than you otherwise would have made. Let's look at the process:

1. Most decisions can be correctly made by assuming an average opponent and using basic poker skills.

2. Most of the mistakes caused by assuming an average opponent can be corrected by using Villain's stats in place of an average opponent.

That doesn't leave many opportunities to improve your decisions by using reads. Furthermore using the result of a single hand to overrule stats is a tricky business. One hand is the ultimate small sample. It's very rare that I would allow the result of one hand to change my decision unless the decision was close. But close decisions by definition don't matter very much.

I know this is heresy but online poker is not poker. The received wisdom of our B&M forefathers is that watching the table is all-important and reads are crucial. But they don't use reads the way we use them. They use their reads to do many basic things that our HUDs do for us. Plus they play the same small group of opponents for hours, days, and weeks. Given the small sample size given in OP this Villain is very unlikely to be a regular. The odds are he'll be gone forever before you get another 100 hands in against him.
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